Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) for April to June 2019 and April to October 2019 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD).

  • For April to June 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for SWLD. Most probable decile range is decile 2-3. Predictive skill based on March conditions is mostly moderate to good (60 -100% consistent). 

  • The SSF long lead outlook for April to October also indicates less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Most probable decile range is decile 2-3. Predictive skill based on March conditions is mostly poor to good (50 -100% consistent). Past outlooks have been particularly good for Esperance, being correct 5 out of 6 seasons. Three times in the northern (Northampton to Chittering) and southern (Wagin to Ravensthorpe) agricultural regions and twice in the central (Toodyay to Lake Grace) agricultural region.

  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating roughly equal chance (45-55%) of exceeding or below median rainfall for April to June 2019 for the majority of the SWLD, and chances of exceeding median rainfall are lower  (30-40%) along  the coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany. Parts of Esperance shire have higher chances at 60-65%. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).

  • Temperature outlooks for April to June 2019, from the Bureau indicate 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is mostly good at 55-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 55-80% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly poor at 45-55% consistent.

  • March rainfall was above average in the Great Southern, but below average to average elsewhere in the SWLD.March maximum temperatures were generally average to above average and minimum temperatures were average to above average. The past two to three decades have seen a decline in autumn rainfall for southern Australia.

Three month outlook for South West Land Division

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)

DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.

For April to June 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for SWLD. Most probable decile range is decile 2-3. Predictive skill based on March conditions is mostly moderate to good (60 -100% consistent).

SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for April to June using data up to and including March. Indicating less than 40% chance of the Southwest Land Division receiving above median rainfall.
SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for April to June using data up to and including March.
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting April to June rainfall using data up to and including March. Skill is 60 to 100 percent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting April to June rainfall using data up to and including March.