Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating below median rainfall for the majority of the South-West Land Division (which includes the wheatbelt) for August to October 2017.
- The SSF is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for August to October for the majority of the wheatbelt. For southern areas of the northern agricultural area, a small area of the central wheatbelt and south coast, chances are higher at 40-60%. For the Metropolitan region and Dardanup shire chances are higher still at 60-80%. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for the majority of the wheat-belt. Predictive skill based on July conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the South-West Land Division (SWLD) has a 30-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for August to October. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
- In the shorter-term, weather forecasts are indicating good rainfall for the first half of August.
- Temperature outlooks for August to October from the Bureau indicate a 70-80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 50-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 65-75% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor skill at 45% consistent.
- July rainfall in the South-West Land Division was generally near average. Maximum and minimum temperatures were near average to above average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.
The SSF forecast for August to October 2017 is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for August to October for the majority of the wheatbelt. For southern parts of the northern agricultural area, and a small area of the central wheatbelt and south coast, chances are higher at 40-60%. For the Metropolitan region and Dardanup shire chances are higher still at 60-80%. Predictive skill based on July conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).