Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for August to October 2019 is indicating 20-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West land Division (SWLD).
- For August to October 2019, the SSF is indicating 20-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division. With higher chances (above 60%) for parts of Esperance. Predictive skill based on July conditions is poor to good (50 -75% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 30-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for August to October 2019, for the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for August to October 2019, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 50-65% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor 45-55% consistent.
- July rainfall was below average to average for eastern parts. July maximum temperatures were above average and minimum temperatures were average to above average.
- The majority of other models indicate dry condiitons excepted for August to October with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast until November. With cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increase of frost in susceptible areas.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For August to October 2019, the SSF is indicating 20-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division. With higher chances (above 60%) for parts of Esperance. The most probable decile range varies across the SWLD. Predictive skill based on July conditions is poor to good (50 -75% consistent).
