Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 35-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for summer, December 2018 to February 2019 for the South West Land Division (SWLD). Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for summer, December 2018 to February 2019, from the Bureau indicate 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD away from the coasts. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 60-75% chance of above average night-time minima for most of the SWLD except the northwestern areas with 50-60% chance, with skill mostly moderate to good at 55-75% consistent.
