Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast system is indicating a neutral (40-60%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for February to April 2018 for the majority of the grainbelt.
- The SSF is indicating a 40-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD) for February to April 2018. This chance has increased to greater than 60% for the Lake Grace, Kondinin, Kulin and Esperance shires. There is a 30-40% chance for some parts of the central agricultural region. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for the central grainbelt, with decile 8-10 rainfall for the southern grainbelt and Esperance and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on January conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates generally a 50-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for February to April 2018 for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for February to April 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 30-55% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 35-55% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor to good skill at 50-75% consistent.
- January rainfall in the SWLD was above average due to ex-tropical cyclone Joyce bringing rainfall in mid-January. January maximum and minimum temperatures were near average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal climate information page.
The SSF is indicating a 40-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. This chance has increased to greater than 60% for the Lake Grace, Kondinin, Kulin and Esperance shires. There is a 30-40% chance for some parts of the central agricultural region. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for the central grainbelt, with decile 8-10 rainfall for the southern grainbelt and Esperance and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on January conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent).
