Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system for February to April 2019 is indicating generally neutral chances (40-60%) of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD).
- For February to April 2019, the SSF is indicating a neutral (40 - 60%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the grainbelt, with greater chances (60-80%) for Esperance and the Great Southern region. Most probable decile range is decile 4-7 for most of the grainbelt and decile 8-9 for Esperance and Great Southern. Predictive skill based on January conditions is mostly poor to good (50 - 70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for February to April 2019 for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks February to April 2019, from the Bureau indicate over 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is mostly moderate at 50-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate over 70% chance of above average night-time minima for most of the SWLD, parts of the southern coasts chances are higher than the south west forecast district , with skill mostly moderate at 50-65% consistent.
- January rainfall was generally below average to average in the SWLD grainbelt, with above average in the southwest capes. January maximum temperatures were average to above average and minimum temperatures were below average to average.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For February to April 2019, the SSF is indicating for a neutral 40-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division. The most probable decile range is decile 4-7 for most of the grainbelt and decile 8-9 for Esperance and Great Southern region. Predictive skill based on January conditions is mostly poor to good (50-75% consistent).
