Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for February to April 2019 for the South West Land Division (SWLD). Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
Temperature outlooks February to April 2019, from the Bureau indicate 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 50-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate greater than 70% chance of above average night-time minima (lower chances along the coast) for most of the, with skill mostly moderate at 50-65% consistent.
