Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating less than a 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for July to September and July to October 2018.
- The SSF is indicating less than a 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt for July to September 2018. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on June conditions is mostly poor to good (50- 70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology has a near-neutral rainfall outlook for July to September (a 40-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall). Predictive skill is mostly moderate to good (55-75% consistent) over southern WA.
- Temperature outlooks for July to September 2018, from the Bureau of Meterology indicate a 50-80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the south west land division (SWLD). Skill is poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent.
- For July to October, the SSF is also indicating less than a 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for most of the grainbelt. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill is mostly poor to good, 50 to 75% consistent.
- June rainfall was below average for the grainbelt. June maximum temperatures were average to above average and minimum temperatures generally average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For July to September, the SSF is indicating less than a 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 rainfall for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on June conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
