Summary
The Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating below median rainfall for the majority of the South-West Land Division (which includes the wheatbelt) for winter (June to August) and June to October 2017.
- The SSF is indicating 0-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for winter (June to August) for the majority of the wheatbelt. For Ravensthorpe and western parts of the Esperance shire, chances are higher at 40-60%. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for the majority of the wheat-belt for winter. Predictive skill based on May conditions is poor to good (50-100% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the South-West Land Division (SWLD) has a 20-30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for winter. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for June to August from the Bureau indicate 80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 50-75% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to good at 50-75% consistent.
- DAFWA’s SSF is indicating 0-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for June to October. The most probable decile range map indicates rainfall decile of 2-3 for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill based on May conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- May rainfall in the SWLD was generally below average. Maximum temperatures were above average to average whilst minimum temperatures were average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DAFWA’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.
The SSF forecast for winter, June to August 2017 is indicating 0-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the wheatbelt. For the shire of Ravensthorpe and western parts of the Esperance shire, this has increased to 40-60% chance of exceeding median. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for winter for the majority of the SWLD, and decile 4-7 for Ravensthorpe and the western part of the Esperance shire. Predictive skill based on May conditions is poor to good (50-100% consistent).
