Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates that SWWA and the southern wheat-belt have 25-40% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for autumn. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). This differs from the wetter SSF outlook, and outlooks must be used with caution at this time when skill is low due to a predictability barrier in the Pacific Ocean. The Bureau’s drier outlook is likely a result of forecast higher than normal pressure over western and southern Australia, meaning fewer cold fronts are likely to cross the coast. International dynamical climate models, similar to POAMA, are mostly indicating a below median autumn for SWWA based on expected higher mean sea level pressures.
Temperature outlooks from the Bureau indicate a 55-75% chance of above normal day-time maxima and 45-65% chance of above normal night-time minima across the region for the March to May period (poor to moderate skill, 45-65% consistent).
