Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system for May to July 2019 and May to October 2019 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt with higher chances (greater than 60%) for eastern grainbelt and Esperance shire. The majority of other models also indicate drier conditions for May to July 2019.
- For May to July 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt, with greater chances (above 60%) for far eastern grainbelt and Ravensthorpe and Esperance shires, with neutral chances (40-60%) elsewhere. Most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt, decile 8-10 Ravensthorpe and Esperance shires and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on April conditions is mostly poor to good (50 -75% consistent).
- The SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to October for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt. Higher chances (greater than 60%) for the central grainbelt and parts of Esperance. Neutral chances (40-60%) for elsewhere. The most probable decile map is indicating decile 2-3 rainfall for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt, decile 8-10 for central grainbelt and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Skill is 50 to 100 percent consistent.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 30-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to July 2019. Lower chances (30-45%) are for southern parts of the northern grainbelt, western central grainbelt and south-west. For parts of Esperance and Ravensthorpe, chances are higher at 60-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for May to July 2019, from the Bureau indicate 50-75% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is mostly good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 50-70% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly poor at 45-65% consistent.
- April rainfall was generally average in the SWLD.April maximum temperatures were average and minimum temperatures were below average to average.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For May to July 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt, with greater chances (above 60%) for far eastern grainbelt and Ravensthorpe and Esperance shires, with neutral chances (40-60%) elsewhere. Most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for parts of the northern and southern grainbelt, decile 8-10 Ravensthorpe and Esperance shires and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on April conditions is mostly poor to good (50 -75% consistent).
