Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for October to December 2018, from the Bureau indicate greater than 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 65-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate greater than 75% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to good at 50-75% consistent.
