Summary

This short edition of the Seasonal Climate Outlook indicates that the rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) January to March 2024, is neutral, meaning there is equal chance of above or below median rainfall, based on a survey of 19 national and international models. Warmer temperatures than normal are also expected.

Things to consider:

• Localised thunderstorms are currently active, leading to heavy falls for some locations.
• Fire damage remains high, so keep an eye out for dry lightning.
• Bureau of Meteorology temperature outlook for January to March 2024 is for above average maximum and minimum temperatures (80% chance of exceeding median temperature).
• Above average mean sea level pressure south of Australia (high pressure system) has increased the easterly flow across the grainbelt, leading to stronger than normal easterly winds. These winds have been driving the higher than normal temperatures.
• El Niño is continuing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is still active, but should decay by the end of January.

Rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division

A summary of 20 national and international models show that 9 out of 19 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for January to March 2024. Further ahead, the majority of models indicates below median rainfall for April to June, and neutral chances for May to July rainfall. Remember, however, the further out the model forecasts, the least skill it has. Also, because of the ‘autumn predictability barrier’, climate models forecasting past autumn (March to May) have the lowest skill and should be viewed with caution.

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Model summary of rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division up until May to July 2024.

This edition is a shorter version of what you can usually expect from the Seasonal Climate Outlook. The February edition of the Seasonal Climate Outlook will be published in early February and will have more information.