Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for January to March 2022 is indicating less than 60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD).
- For January to March 2022, the SSF is indicating less than 60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Less than 40% chance for parts of Central West, Central Wheatbelt, Great Southern and South East Coastal forecast districts. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 4-7 for parts ofthe Lower West, South West, and South Coastal forecast districts, and decile 2-3 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on December conditions is mostly poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) seasonal outlook for January to March 2022 is indicating less than 45% chance of above median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. For the South East Coastal forecast district, chances are wetter at 45-65%. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent). The longer term outlook for February to April 2021 is mostly neutral, with wetter (up to 70%) chance for South East Coastal forecast district. Skill is poor to (45-55%).
- Temperature outlooks from BoM for January to March 2022 indicate a 45-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with lower chances along the South Coast. Skill is 55-75%. There is a 60-80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD. Skill is 55-75%.
- December rainfall was below average to average for the SWLD. December maximum temperatures were very much above average and minimum temperatures were average to above average.
- The main climate driver influencing the SWLD is the La Niña in the Pacific, which has little influence over rainfall in the SWLD. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) remains positive but has no influence on SWLD climate in summer.
Three-month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
To produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months, DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from DPIRD’s Seasonal Climate Information pages.
For January to March 2022, the SSF is indicating less than 60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, and less than 40% chance for parts of the Central West, Central Wheatbelt, Great Southern and South East Coastal forecast districts. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 4-7 for parts of the Lower West, South West, and South Coastal forecast districts, with decile 2-3 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on December conditions is mostly poor to good (50-75% consistent).
