Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for May to July 2021, is indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD). The SSF longer outlook for May to October is mostly neutral at 40-60% chance.
- For May to July 2021, the SSF is indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD). The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the SWLD. Predictive skill based on April conditions is mostly moderate to good (60-100% consistent).
- The longer lead SSF forecast of May to October 2021 rainfall is indicating mostly neutral (40-60%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD, with wetter chances in south eastern parts. The most likely decile range map is indicating decile 4-7 for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 60 to 100 % consistent.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for May to July indicated 35-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent). The longer term outlook for winter, June to August is mostly neutral (40-65%) chance for the majority of the SWLD with poor to moderate predictive skill (45-65%).
- Temperature outlooks from the Bureau for May to July 2021 indicate a 65-80% chance of above average daytime maxima (skill 75-100%), and 60-80% chance of exceeding above average night time minima for most of the SWLD (skill 45-65%).
- April rainfall was very much above average for SWLD due to tropical cyclone Seroja. April maximum and minimum temperatures were above average.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. For SWLD, the current climate influence is warmer Sea Surface Temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For May to July 2021, the SSF is indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD). The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the SWLD. Predictive skill based on April conditions is mostly moderate to good (60-100% consistent).
