Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating roughly equal chance (45-55%) of exceeding or below median rainfall for April to June 2019 for the majority of the SWLD, and chances of exceeding median rainfall are lower (30-40%) along the coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany. Parts of Esperance shire have higher chances at 60-65%. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for April to July 2019, from the Bureau indicate 60- 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is mostly moderate at 55-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 55-80% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly poor at 45-55% consistent.
