Summary
The South West Land Division (SWLD) has an equal chance of receiving neutral to below median rainfall for April to June 2024, according to the current model rainfall outlook.
Warmer temperatures than normal are expected to continue.
Things to consider:
-
Bureau of Meteorology temperature outlook for next 3 months, April to June 2024 and further ahead May to July, is for above average maximum and minimum temperatures (80% chance of exceeding median temperature).
-
From the models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology, 4 out of 7 are indicating a La Niña to develop in the Pacific Ocean by August. A La Nina has little influence on SWLD rainfall. Remember skill is poor at this time of the year.
-
All 5 models surveyed by the Bureau, indicate a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) to develop in May. This may persist until at least August. A positive IOD means drier and warmer conditions in the SWLD. Remember skill is poor at this time of the year.
-
Latest DPIRD plant available soil water map indicates a high amount of water around Hyden, with low to none for other parts of the SWLD.
-
The Bureau’s Water and the Land is indicating only 1-5 mm rain along the south coast for the end of March.
Rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division
Summary of 19 national and international models show that 9 models indicate below median rainfall and another 9 indicate neutral chances of rainfall (above or below median) exceeding the median rainfall for the SWLD for April to June 2024.
Further ahead, the majority of models is indicating a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for winter, June to August and out to July to September.
A neutral outlook doesn’t mean average rainfall, but normal climatology (anything is possible). Remember, however, the further out the model forecasts, the least skill it has.
Also, because of the ‘autumn predictability barrier’ climate models forecasting past autumn (March to May), have the lowest skill and should be viewed with caution.
