Recent climate
July rainfall was below average to average for the SWLD, due to the positive Southern Annular Mode. July maximum temperatures were above average, with minimum temperatures average. Rainfall decile map for 1 April to 7 August 2022 shows decile 8-10 rainfall for South East Coastal, South Coastal and parts of the Great Southern and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts.
In July the atmospheric pressure was slightly higher than normal over the SWLD.
In July, sea surface temperatures were warmer than average around much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west. The sea surface temperature outlook for August to October by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates SSTs are likely to remain warmer than normal around Western Australia and the north and south-east of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently negative and likely to remain through to November. Past negative IOD events generally increase rainfall in the eastern grainbelt.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), describes the north–south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica, dominating the middle to higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere. SAM is currently negative, but is forecast to return to positive values for the rest of August. A positive SAM has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia, while neutral SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall. For more information see the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Driver Update.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. The Bureau of Meteorology ENSO outlook is a La Niña Watch, as there is around 50% chance of a La Niña reforming later in 2022. Past La Niña’s have had very little influence on the climate of the South West Land Division.
The table below gives a summary of past month and three-month South West Land Division (SWLD) climate conditions, and can indicate what is likely to occur in the near future if climate conditions follow the current pattern.
| Climate Indicator | Past month | Past 3 months |
|---|---|---|
| SWLD Rainfall | Below average to average | Below average to average |
| SWLD Mean Temperature | Above average | Above average |
| SWLD atmospheric pressure | Higher | Lower |
| Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature | Warmer | Warmer |
| El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) | Neutral | La Niña |
| Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) | Negative | Neutral |
| Southern Annular Mode (SAM) | Positive | Positive |