Summary
Rainfall outlook for South West Land Division for the summer, December 2023 to February 2024, is for below median rainfall, based on a survey of twenty national and international models. Warmer temperatures than normal are also expected.
Things to consider:
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS model indicates that there is a 60-80% chance of unusually high minimum and maximum temperatures for summer 2023/24. Meaning that the next three months will be amongst the hottest 20% of seasons for this time of the year.
- An El Niño is present in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to last until at least April 2024. El Niño’s, have some influence on summer temperatures in the South West Land Division, with usually warmer temperatures than normal.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole has developed in the Indian Ocean. This event is unusual, as models expect it to remain in place until January 2024, delaying the onset of the monsoon and a later start to the tropical cyclone season north of Western Australia.
- When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.
Rainfall Outlook for the South West Land Division
Summary of twenty national and international models show that 12 out of 20 models indicate below normal chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for summer, December 2023 to February 2024. Further ahead, February to April, majority of models are indicating neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall (neither wetter or drier conditions), and three of six models are indicating a drier than normal outlook, for autumn, March to May 2024. Remember, however, the further out the model forecasts, the least skill it has.
