Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating neutral (45-55%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for winter, June to August 2019, for the majority of the grainbelt. Lower chances (30-45%) are for coastal areas Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for winter, June to August 2019, from the Bureau indicate 70-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 65-80% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate 45-65% consistent. With more cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increase of frost in susceptible areas.
