Seasonal Climate Outlook

Recent climate

February rainfall in the SWLD was average to above average, with the region dominated by thunderstorms and showers particularly inland and eastern parts of the Division. February maximum and minimum temperatures below average, especially daytime maxima.

In February, the atmospheric pressure was near normal over the south-west. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures north-west and west of Western Australia are near normal.

In the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña continues to break down. A return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions is expected during early to mid-autumn. In the past, the breakdown of weak La Niña events has seen drier conditions across parts of central and eastern Australia during autumn.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April due to the influence of the monsoon trough over the tropical Indian Ocean. See the Bureau of Meteorology’s IOD and Pacific Ocean interaction for details.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), describes the north–south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica, dominating the middle to higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere. SAM is currently positive and is expected to go to neutral by mid-March. In a positive SAM event, the belt of strong westerly winds contracts towards Antarctica. During the summer and autumn months (December through to May) the SAM shows an increasing tendency to remain in a positive phase, with westerly winds contracted towards the South Pole. A positive SAM usually means drier conditions for the south-west corner.

The table below gives a summary of past month and three month SWWA climate conditions, and can be used as an indication of what is likely to occur in the near future, if climate conditions follow the current pattern.