Climate driver outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s survey of international models suggests ENSO to be at neutral state in July. Although, 2 out of 7 models is indicating a La Niña to develop.
La Niña has variable influence on the SWLD climate. The last La Niña was in 2020, a decile 2-3 growing season rainfall year.
The Bureau of Meteorology survey for the Indian Ocean Dipole, shows one model indicating a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
A positive IOD generally means drier winter-spring rainfall and warmer temperatures for the SWLD. The last positive IOD was in 2019, a decile 2-3 growing season rainfall year.
Remember, that we are currently in the ‘autumn predictability barrier’ for forecasts, which means models predicting past autumn must be viewed with caution as they have the lowest skill at this time of the year.
For information on climate drivers refer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Driver Update.