Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 30-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to July 2019. Lower chances (30-45%) are for southern parts of the northern grainbelt, western central grainbelt and south-west. For parts of Esperance and Ravensthorpe, chances are higher at 60-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for May to July 2019, from the Bureau indicate 50-75% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is mostly good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 50-70% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly poor at 45-65% consistent.
