Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 30-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for November 2018 to January 2019 for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly low to moderate (45-65% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for November 2018 to January 2019, from the Bureau indicate 75-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to high at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 65-75% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly poor to high at 50-75% consistent.
