Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook issued on the 29 October indicated a 50-80% of exceeding median rainfall for November 2020 to January 2021 for the majority of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for December 2020 to February 2021 gives higher chances at 70-80%. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75%).
Temperature outlooks for November to January 2021, from the Bureau indicate a 65-80% chance of above average day-time maxima along the west coast, with lower chances (30-60%) for the south coast and interior (high skill 75-100%) and 80% chance of above average night-time minima (high skill 65-100%) for the SWLD. These outlooks can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20201029-outlook.shtml .
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority are indicating above chances of exceeding median rainfall for November to January 2021 for the SWLD.
