Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the SWLD has a 40-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December in the western parts. For Jerramungup, Ravensthorpe and Esperance this chance is slightly higher at 45-50%. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). The Bureau’s drier outlook is influenced by localised factors such as cooler than normal Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and higher sea level pressures.
Temperature outlooks for October to December, from the Bureau indicate a 45-65% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 35-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill at 45-65% consistent.
