Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for October to December 2022, is indicating 25-65% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. The higher chances are for parts of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for November 2022 to January 2023 is neutral (40-60%) chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly moderate skill (50-75%).
Temperature outlooks for October to December 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 20-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the lower chances for Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts. Skill is good at 75-100%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 40- 80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is good at 75-100%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral-above chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for October to December 2022.
