Summary
The Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia’s (DAFWA) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system indicates a drier than normal rainfall outlook for most of the south-west of WA for the next three months, May to July 2014.
- Predictive skill is medium to good based on April conditions.
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) seasonal outlook indicates normal to wetter than normal rainfall for the south-west of WA over the next three months. Predictive skill is medium to good. Temperature outlooks are indicating normal to warmer than normal maximum temperatures and warmer than normal minimum temperatures.
- Rainfall in the past month was normal or below normal for the wheatbelt, except for parts of the eastern wheatbelt that received above normal rainfall. Maximum temperatures were warmer than normal and minimum temperatures were close to normal.
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An El Niño event is likely to occur this winter but it’s effect is likely to be minimal in the south west of WA if the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DAFWA’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months.
The SSF forecast for the next three months, May to July 2014, has a drier than normal rainfall outlook for most of the south-west of WA (SWWA) with decile 2-3 rainfall most probable for all areas excepting the Northern and parts of the eastern wheatbelt where normal conditions are more likely. Predictive skill is medium to good based on April data.
