Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for summer December 2021 to February 2022 is indicating 45-55% chance of above median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent). The longer term outlook for January to March 2022 is also neutral, with wetter chances for Great Southern and South Coastal forecast districts. Skill is poor to moderate (50-65%).
Temperature outlooksfrom the Bureau for November 2021 to January 2022 indicate a 35-80% chance of above average day-time maxima (with lower chances for the Great Southern and South Coastal forecast districts). Skill is 55-75%. The Bureau indicates 60-80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD. Skill is 55-75%.
The majority of other rainfall forecasting models are indicating neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for summer December 2021 to February 2022.
