Seasonal Climate Outlook

Recent climate

November rainfall was generally below average to average for the SWLD, but heavy falls and hail delayed grain harvest in the Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern. November maximum temperatures were below average to average and minimum temperatures were average.  

1 November to 5 December rainfall decile map for the South West Land Division. 

The atmospheric pressure In November was higher than normal over the SWLD.

Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures north-west of Western Australia are average, as the IOD has returned to neutral.The January to March 2022 SST forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates SSTs anorth of WA re likely to remain average.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), describes the north–south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica, dominating the middle to higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere. The SAM index is currently positive. In a positive SAM phase, the belt of westerly winds contracts towards Antarctica. A positive SAM phase in summer has no influence on SWLD rainfall. For more information, see the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Driver Update.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral. As the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, it changes wind patterns and prevents an IOD event from forming. This is why IOD events are unable to form (and therefore influence Australian climate) during the period from December to April. 

A La Niña has established in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be short-lived, persisting until the late summer or early autumn, 2022. Based on past La Niña events, summer rainfall is expected to be average for SWLD. 

The table below summarises climate conditions in the SWLD over the past month and three-months, and can indicate what is likely to occur in the near future if climate conditions follow the current pattern.