Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the SWLD has a 20-35% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to July. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent). The Bureau’s drier outlook is influenced by warming in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.
Temperature outlooks for May to July from the Bureau indicate a 65-80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 55-75% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent.
