Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating neutral chances (40-60%) of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018 for most of the South West Land Division (SWLD) which includes the Wheatbelt.
- The SSF is indicating neutral (40-60%) chances of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD, including the Wheatbelt. For the south-west corner, there is less than a 40% chance of exceeding the median rainfall. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 4-7 rainfall is most likely, with decile 2-3 for south-west corner. Predictive skill based on November conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates that much of the SWLD has a 45-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018. For Albany and surrounding shires, this chance is lower at 40-45%. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (50-65% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for November 2017 to January 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 45-55% chance of above normal day-time maxima for most of the SWLD. Skill is mostly moderate to good at 50-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 45-50% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill at 50-75% consistent.
- October rainfall in the SWLD was below average to average. October maximum and minimum temperatures were near average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.
The SSF forecast for November 2017 to January 2018 is indicating neutral chances (40-60%) of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. For the south-west corner, there is a less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Predictive skill based on October conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent). The most probable decile range map indicates decile 4-7 rainfall is most likely, with decile 2-3 for south-west corner.