Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates that much of the SWLD has a 45-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018. For Albany and surrounding shires, this chance is lower at 40-45%. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (50-65% consistent). On average, there are 10-13 tropical cyclones each season in the Australian region, with four crossing the coast. The Bureau’s tropical cyclone outlook is indicating the average number is expected this coming summer. Wheatbelt summer rainfall is generally from localised thunderstorms, but tropical cyclones and tropical lows can generate summer rain if they travel southwards.
Temperature outlooks for November 2017 to January 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 45-55% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 50-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 45-50% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill at 50-75% consistent.
