Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 60-80% of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2020 for the majority of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is good (65% consistent). The longer-term outlook for November to January 2021 is similar. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-65%).

Temperature outlooks for October to December 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 30-60% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill very high above 75%) and 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill very high above 75%) for the SWLD.

Rainfall outlook for October to December 2020 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for October to December.

Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December for the South West Land Division.

Model distribution summary of 13 models (not including the SSF) which forecast October to December rainfall in the South West Land Division.