Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 20-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November 2018, from the Bureau mostly indicate an 80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. For the individual month of September, the chance of exceeding median minima is 30-50%, so with clear skies likely, the risk of frost and cold nights continue, especially into September.
