Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 25-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for September to November 2019, for the overall South West Land Division. Eastern and south-eastern parts have much lower chances of exceeding median seaosnal rainfall. For the individual month of September, chances have increased to 50 to 70%. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for September to November 2019, from the Bureau indicate a 55-80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 55-100% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 55-75% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to good 50-75% consistent. With more cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increase of frost in susceptible areas.
