Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the South West Land Division (SWLD) has a 20-35% chance of exceeding median rainfall for April to June. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent). The Bureau’s drier outlook is influenced by warming in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.
Temperature outlooks for April to June from the Bureau indicate a 35-60% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the south-west corner. For the Wheatbelt, chances are increased to 60-70%. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 30-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent.
